Stock Price Trends

Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc (FDP)

Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. produces, markets and distributes fresh and fresh cut fruits and vegetables in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and internationally. The company is headquartered in George Town, Cayman Islands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 174.59% per annum.
  • FDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $34.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.07% per annum.
  • FDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.20 (0.57%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FDP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 5, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = -1.5057

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0500

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 174.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0500) – 1
= 22.13%

June 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5057 + 0.0028 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.1494)
= $23.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5057 + 0.0028 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(2.9495)
= $19.10

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5057 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.6476)
= $38.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.5057 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0500)
= Exp(3.4477)
= $31.43

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 174.59% per annum.
  • FDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $34.92 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 2.8256

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0099

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0099) – 1
= 4.02%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8256 + 0.0004 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(3.5374)
= $34.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8256 + 0.0004 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(3.4980)
= $33.05

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8256 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(3.5474)
= $34.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8256 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(3.5080)
= $33.38

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.07% per annum.
  • FDP price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.20 (0.57%).