JM Smucker Company (SJM)
The J. M. Smucker Company, also known as Smucker and Smucker's, is an American manufacturer of jam, peanut butter, jelly, fruit syrups, beverages, shortening, ice cream toppings, and other products in North America. Smucker's headquarters are located in Orrville, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.86% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $112.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.71% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SJM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.4267
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0680
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0680) – 1
= 31.26%
October 25, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,069 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4267 + -0.0004 × 1,069 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(5.1256)
= $168.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y736)
= Exp(a + b × X736 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,069 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4267 + -0.0004 × 1,069 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.8536)
= $128.20
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4267 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.8161)
= $123.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4267 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0680)
= Exp(4.5441)
= $94.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 13.86% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $112.08 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 8, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.2117
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0320
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1
= 13.67%
April 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2117 + 0.0003 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.7610)
= $116.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,099)
= Exp(a + b × X1,099 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2117 + 0.0003 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.6329)
= $102.81
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2117 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.8296)
= $125.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2117 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(4.7015)
= $110.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 11.71% per annum.
- SJM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.