The Hain Celestial Group Inc (HAIN)
Hain Celestial Group, Inc. manufactures, markets and sells organic and natural products in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Lake Success, New York.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.85% per annum.
- HAIN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $8.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.67 (8.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.68% per annum.
- HAIN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HAIN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 19, 2021
End date: August 26, 2024
a = 5.0706
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1186
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1186) – 1
= 60.72%
July 19, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y468)
= Exp(a + b × X468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0706 + -0.0018 × 679 + 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(4.0966)
= $60.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y468)
= Exp(a + b × X468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 679 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0706 + -0.0018 × 679 – 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(3.6221)
= $37.42
August 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0706 + -0.0018 × 1,813 + 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(2.0738)
= $7.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,249)
= Exp(a + b × X1,249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,813 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0706 + -0.0018 × 1,813 – 2 × 0.1186)
= Exp(1.5993)
= $4.95
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.85% per annum.
- HAIN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $8.47 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.67 (8.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 0.2164
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0741
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0741) – 1
= 34.51%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2164 + 0.0010 × 1,668 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(2.0210)
= $7.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2164 + 0.0010 × 1,668 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(1.7245)
= $5.61
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2164 + 0.0010 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(2.1759)
= $8.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2164 + 0.0010 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0741)
= Exp(1.8794)
= $6.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.68% per annum.
- HAIN price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.