Stock Price Trends

Lamb Weston Holdings Inc (LW)

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. is an American food processing company that is one of the world's largest producers and processors of frozen french fries and other frozen potato products. It is headquartered in Eagle, Idaho.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.58% per annum.
  • LW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $76.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 219.58% per annum.
  • LW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 31, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 5.7846

b = -0.0008

s = 0.1112

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1112) – 1
= 56.04%

March 31, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7846 + -0.0008 × 1,226 + 2 × 0.1112)
= Exp(4.9695)
= $143.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y844)
= Exp(a + b × X844 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7846 + -0.0008 × 1,226 – 2 × 0.1112)
= Exp(4.5245)
= $92.25

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7846 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1112)
= Exp(4.4617)
= $86.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7846 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1112)
= Exp(4.0167)
= $55.52

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 26.58% per annum.
  • LW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $76.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = -1.4228

b = 0.0032

s = 0.0306

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 219.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.03%

July 24, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4228 + 0.0032 × 1,707 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.0720)
= $58.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,707 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4228 + 0.0032 × 1,707 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(3.9495)
= $51.91

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4228 + 0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.4508)
= $85.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.4228 + 0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.3283)
= $75.81

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 219.58% per annum.
  • LW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.