Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ)
Mondelez International, Inc. is an American multinational confectionery, food, holding and beverage and snack food company based in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.82% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $64.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.32% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 6, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 7.9386
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0141
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -52.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0141) – 1
= 5.79%
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9386 + -0.0021 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.3628)
= $78.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9386 + -0.0021 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.3066)
= $74.19
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9386 + -0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.2085)
= $67.25
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9386 + -0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.1522)
= $63.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.82% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $64.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 10.2380
b = -0.0033
s = 0.0097
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0033) – 1
= -70.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0097) – 1
= 3.96%
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2380 + -0.0033 × 1,790 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.2996)
= $73.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,231)
= Exp(a + b × X1,231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2380 + -0.0033 × 1,790 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.2608)
= $70.87
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2380 + -0.0033 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.1798)
= $65.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2380 + -0.0033 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0097)
= Exp(4.1410)
= $62.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 70.32% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.