Hershey Co (HSY)
The Hershey Company, commonly known as Hershey's, is an American multinational company and one of the largest chocolate manufacturers in the world. It also manufactures baked products, such as cookies and cakes, and sells beverages like milkshakes, and many more that are produced globally. Its headquarters are in Hershey, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.39% per annum.
- HSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $174.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.61% per annum.
- HSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HSY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.7475
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0784
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0784) – 1
= 36.83%
July 28, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7475 + -0.0003 × 980 + 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(5.6097)
= $273.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y674)
= Exp(a + b × X674 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7475 + -0.0003 × 980 – 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(5.2961)
= $199.55
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7475 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(5.3553)
= $211.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7475 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0784)
= Exp(5.0417)
= $154.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.39% per annum.
- HSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $174.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 8.7773
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0134
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0134) – 1
= 5.50%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7773 + -0.0020 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(5.3261)
= $205.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,202)
= Exp(a + b × X1,202 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7773 + -0.0020 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(5.2726)
= $194.92
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7773 + -0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(5.1730)
= $176.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7773 + -0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0134)
= Exp(5.1195)
= $167.25
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 51.61% per annum.
- HSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.