Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $249.85 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.17% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of September 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $18.38 (7.94%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.8628

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0696

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.10%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8628 + 0.0009 × 725 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.6480)
= $104.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y499)
= Exp(a + b × X499 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 725 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8628 + 0.0009 × 725 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.3696)
= $79.01

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8628 + 0.0009 × 1,616 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.4420)
= $230.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,110)
= Exp(a + b × X1,110 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,616 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8628 + 0.0009 × 1,616 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.1636)
= $174.79

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of September 17, 2025 was $249.85 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: August 27, 2025

a = 4.3275

b = 0.0005

s = 0.0785

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 21.17%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0785) – 1
= 36.89%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y665)
= Exp(a + b × X665 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 965 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3275 + 0.0005 × 965 + 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(4.9921)
= $147.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y665)
= Exp(a + b × X665 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 965 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3275 + 0.0005 × 965 – 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(4.6781)
= $107.57

August 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3275 + 0.0005 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(5.4334)
= $228.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3275 + 0.0005 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0785)
= Exp(5.1194)
= $167.24

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 21.17% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of September 17, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $18.38 (7.94%).