Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.87% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $158.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.46 (12.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.97% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 3.7015
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0687
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0687) – 1
= 31.65%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7015 + 0.0009 × 902 + 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(4.6505)
= $104.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y622)
= Exp(a + b × X622 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7015 + 0.0009 × 902 – 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(4.3755)
= $79.48
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7015 + 0.0009 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(5.4449)
= $231.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7015 + 0.0009 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(5.1699)
= $175.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.87% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $158.88 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.46 (12.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025
a = 11.6045
b = -0.0036
s = 0.0250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -72.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0250) – 1
= 10.50%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6045 + -0.0036 × 1,755 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.3643)
= $213.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,206)
= Exp(a + b × X1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,755 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6045 + -0.0036 × 1,755 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.2645)
= $193.35
April 1, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6045 + -0.0036 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.1134)
= $166.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.6045 + -0.0036 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.0136)
= $150.45
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.97% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.