Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.90% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $179.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.21 (2.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.86% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2022
End date: August 1, 2024

a = 3.3020

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0567

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0567) – 1
= 25.45%

October 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3020 + 0.0011 × 1,071 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.6032)
= $99.80

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y738)
= Exp(a + b × X738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3020 + 0.0011 × 1,071 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(4.3764)
= $79.55

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3020 + 0.0011 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(5.3185)
= $204.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3020 + 0.0011 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0567)
= Exp(5.0918)
= $162.68

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.90% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $179.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $4.21 (2.29%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.8555

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0577

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.86%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0577) – 1
= 25.96%

May 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8555 + 0.0007 × 1,268 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.9052)
= $134.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y873)
= Exp(a + b × X873 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8555 + 0.0007 × 1,268 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(4.6744)
= $107.17

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8555 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(5.3163)
= $203.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8555 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0577)
= Exp(5.0855)
= $161.67

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.86% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.