Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG) 

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $176.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.69 (10.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.27% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.7942

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0696

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0696) – 1
= 32.10%

September 13, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7942 + 0.0009 × 803 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.6489)
= $104.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7942 + 0.0009 × 803 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(4.3705)
= $79.09

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7942 + 0.0009 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.4429)
= $231.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7942 + 0.0009 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0696)
= Exp(5.1645)
= $174.94

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.44% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was $176.91 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $19.69 (10.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: July 1, 2025

a = 5.2085

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0698

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0698) – 1
= 32.22%

April 26, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2085 + 0.0000 × 1,394 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(5.2994)
= $200.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,394 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2085 + 0.0000 × 1,394 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(5.0202)
= $151.44

July 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2085 + 0.0000 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(5.2844)
= $197.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2085 + 0.0000 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0698)
= Exp(5.0051)
= $149.17

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 1.27% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of July 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.