Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.87% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $174.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.55 (12.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.40% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: August 2, 2024
a = 3.4969
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0614
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 46.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0614) – 1
= 27.86%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4969 + 0.0011 × 931 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.6003)
= $99.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y643)
= Exp(a + b × X643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4969 + 0.0011 × 931 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(4.3545)
= $77.83
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4969 + 0.0011 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.3154)
= $203.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,109)
= Exp(a + b × X1,109 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4969 + 0.0011 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0614)
= Exp(5.0696)
= $159.11
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 46.87% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $174.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.55 (12.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2023
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 3.9466
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0580
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0580) – 1
= 26.10%
May 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y801)
= Exp(a + b × X801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9466 + 0.0007 × 1,161 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(4.9068)
= $135.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y801)
= Exp(a + b × X801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9466 + 0.0007 × 1,161 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(4.6749)
= $107.22
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9466 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(5.3896)
= $219.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9466 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0580)
= Exp(5.1577)
= $173.77
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.40% per annum.
- GOOG price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.