Stock Price Trends

Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG)

Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.81% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $158.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.55 (12.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.85% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025

a = 3.7042

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0688

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0688) – 1
= 31.69%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 900 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7042 + 0.0009 × 900 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(4.6505)
= $104.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 900 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7042 + 0.0009 × 900 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(4.3752)
= $79.45

February 20, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7042 + 0.0009 × 1,784 + 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(5.4447)
= $231.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7042 + 0.0009 × 1,784 – 2 × 0.0688)
= Exp(5.1694)
= $175.81

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.81% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $158.86 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $23.55 (12.91%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 11.5787

b = -0.0036

s = 0.0247

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0036) – 1
= -72.85%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.40%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5787 + -0.0036 × 1,754 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(5.3636)
= $213.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,205)
= Exp(a + b × X1,205 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,754 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5787 + -0.0036 × 1,754 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(5.2647)
= $193.38

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5787 + -0.0036 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(5.1100)
= $165.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.5787 + -0.0036 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(5.0111)
= $150.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.85% per annum.
  • GOOG price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.