Stock Price Trends

TripAdvisor Inc (TRIP)

TripAdvisor, Inc. is an online travel company. The company is headquartered in Needham, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.32% per annum.
  • TRIP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $14.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.63 (34.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.28% per annum.
  • TRIP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TRIP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 8, 2021
End date: November 6, 2023

a = 4.1185

b = -0.0011

s = 0.1313

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.32%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1313) – 1
= 69.07%

January 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y195)
= Exp(a + b × X195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1185 + -0.0011 × 282 + 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(4.0680)
= $58.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y195)
= Exp(a + b × X195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1185 + -0.0011 × 282 – 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(3.5429)
= $34.57

November 6, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1185 + -0.0011 × 1,314 + 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(2.9222)
= $18.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1185 + -0.0011 × 1,314 – 2 × 0.1313)
= Exp(2.3970)
= $10.99

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.32% per annum.
  • TRIP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $14.17 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.63 (34.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 16, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 3.4838

b = -0.0004

s = 0.1682

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.28%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1682) – 1
= 95.94%

November 16, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y411)
= Exp(a + b × X411 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4838 + -0.0004 × 594 + 2 × 0.1682)
= Exp(3.5693)
= $35.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y411)
= Exp(a + b × X411 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4838 + -0.0004 × 594 – 2 × 0.1682)
= Exp(2.8967)
= $18.11

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4838 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1682)
= Exp(3.0495)
= $21.10

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4838 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1682)
= Exp(2.3769)
= $10.77

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.28% per annum.
  • TRIP price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.