CarGurus (CARG)
CarGurus, Inc. operates an online automotive marketplace that connects buyers and sellers of new and used cars in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.56% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $35.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 98.50% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CARG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.6308
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0930
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0930) – 1
= 45.07%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y711)
= Exp(a + b × X711 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,034 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6308 + 0.0010 × 1,034 + 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(2.8214)
= $16.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y711)
= Exp(a + b × X711 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,034 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6308 + 0.0010 × 1,034 – 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(2.4494)
= $11.58
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6308 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(3.5909)
= $36.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6308 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0930)
= Exp(3.2188)
= $25.00
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.56% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $35.45 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.0678
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0513
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0513) – 1
= 22.77%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0678 + 0.0019 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.1814)
= $24.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0678 + 0.0019 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(2.9762)
= $19.61
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0678 + 0.0019 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.6002)
= $36.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0678 + 0.0019 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0513)
= Exp(3.3951)
= $29.82
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 98.50% per annum.
- CARG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.