Stock Price Trends

Thryv Holdings Inc (THRY)

Thryv Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based tools and digital marketing solutions to small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the United States. The company is headquartered in DFW Airport, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.40% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $13.55 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.09% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.55%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of THRY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 8, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.6117

b = -0.0005

s = 0.1227

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.40%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1227) – 1
= 63.35%

June 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6117 + -0.0005 × 250 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.7262)
= $41.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6117 + -0.0005 × 250 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.2355)
= $25.42

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6117 + -0.0005 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(3.0664)
= $21.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6117 + -0.0005 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.1227)
= Exp(2.5757)
= $13.14

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 17.40% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $13.55 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.1412

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0621

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.09%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0621) – 1
= 28.22%

March 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1412 + -0.0016 × 1,254 + 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(3.2682)
= $26.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y863)
= Exp(a + b × X863 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1412 + -0.0016 × 1,254 – 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(3.0196)
= $20.48

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1412 + -0.0016 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(2.8605)
= $17.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,040)
= Exp(a + b × X1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1412 + -0.0016 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0621)
= Exp(2.6119)
= $13.62

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.09% per annum.
  • THRY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.07 (0.55%).