Apple Inc (AAPL)
Apple Inc. is an American multinational technology company that specializes in consumer electronics, computer software, and online services. Apple is the world's largest technology company by revenue (totalling $274.5 billion in 2020) and, since January 2021, the world's most valuable company. As of 2021, Apple is the world's fourth-largest PC vendor by unit sales, and fourth-largest smartphone manufacturer. It is one of the Big Five American information technology companies, along with Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.28% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $222.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.56% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AAPL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2020
End date: June 10, 2024
a = 4.7838
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0857
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 11.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0857) – 1
= 40.89%
December 1, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y169)
= Exp(a + b × X169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7838 + 0.0003 × 244 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(5.0267)
= $152.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y169)
= Exp(a + b × X169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7838 + 0.0003 × 244 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(4.6838)
= $108.18
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7838 + 0.0003 × 1,531 + 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(5.4034)
= $222.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7838 + 0.0003 × 1,531 – 2 × 0.0857)
= Exp(5.0606)
= $157.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 11.28% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $222.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 23, 2022
End date: March 10, 2025
a = 4.3720
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0694
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0694) – 1
= 32.01%
September 23, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3720 + 0.0006 × 905 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.0752)
= $160.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y625)
= Exp(a + b × X625 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 905 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3720 + 0.0006 × 905 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(4.7975)
= $121.21
March 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3720 + 0.0006 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.6359)
= $280.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3720 + 0.0006 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0694)
= Exp(5.3581)
= $212.33
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.56% per annum.
- AAPL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.