Seagate Technology PLC (STX)
Seagate Technology Holdings plc, an Irish public limited company (commonly referred to as Seagate) is an American data storage company.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.19% per annum.
- STX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $84.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.27 (22.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.19% per annum.
- STX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of STX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: November 12, 2024
a = 2.8406
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0736
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0736) – 1
= 34.25%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y623)
= Exp(a + b × X623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8406 + 0.0011 × 903 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(3.9775)
= $53.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y623)
= Exp(a + b × X623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8406 + 0.0011 × 903 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(3.6829)
= $39.76
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8406 + 0.0011 × 1,686 + 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(4.8356)
= $125.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,686 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8406 + 0.0011 × 1,686 – 2 × 0.0736)
= Exp(4.5411)
= $93.79
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.19% per annum.
- STX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $84.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $24.27 (22.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.2329
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0566
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0566) – 1
= 25.43%
June 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2329 + -0.0004 × 1,531 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.7528)
= $115.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,054)
= Exp(a + b × X1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,531 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2329 + -0.0004 × 1,531 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.5262)
= $92.41
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2329 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.6389)
= $103.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2329 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0566)
= Exp(4.4123)
= $82.46
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.19% per annum.
- STX price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.