Stock Price Trends

Pure Storage Inc (PSTG)

Pure Storage, Inc. provides data storage technology and solutions in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Mountain View, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.29% per annum.
  • PSTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.01 (10.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.08% per annum.
  • PSTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSTG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 19, 2022
End date: August 28, 2024

a = 1.3523

b = 0.0016

s = 0.1247

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1247) – 1
= 64.69%

December 19, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3523 + 0.0016 × 1,125 + 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(3.4013)
= $30.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y775)
= Exp(a + b × X775 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3523 + 0.0016 × 1,125 – 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(2.9024)
= $18.22

August 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3523 + 0.0016 × 1,743 + 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(4.3898)
= $80.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,743 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3523 + 0.0016 × 1,743 – 2 × 0.1247)
= Exp(3.8910)
= $48.96

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.29% per annum.
  • PSTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.90 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $6.01 (10.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 20, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 6.7989

b = -0.0016

s = 0.0711

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -44.08%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0711) – 1
= 32.90%

May 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7989 + -0.0016 × 1,643 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.3244)
= $75.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,130)
= Exp(a + b × X1,130 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7989 + -0.0016 × 1,643 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.0400)
= $56.83

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7989 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(4.0330)
= $56.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7989 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0711)
= Exp(3.7486)
= $42.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 44.08% per annum.
  • PSTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.