Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Microsoft Corporation is an American multinational technology company which produces computer software, consumer electronics, personal computers, and related services. Its best known software products are the Microsoft Windows line of operating systems, the Microsoft Office suite, and the Internet Explorer and Edge web browsers. Its flagship hardware products are the Xbox video game consoles and the Microsoft Surface lineup of touchscreen personal computers. Microsoft ranked No. 21 in the 2020 Fortune 500 rankings of the largest United States corporations by total revenue; it was the world's largest software maker by revenue as of 2016. It is considered one of the Big Five companies in the U.S. information technology industry, along with Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.25% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $378.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.86 (1.52%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.03% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSFT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 25, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 6.0455
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0403
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0403) – 1
= 17.49%
January 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0455 + 0.0000 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(6.1165)
= $453.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y961)
= Exp(a + b × X961 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0455 + 0.0000 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(5.9553)
= $385.80
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0455 + 0.0000 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(6.1135)
= $451.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0455 + 0.0000 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0403)
= Exp(5.9524)
= $384.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.25% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $378.80 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $5.86 (1.52%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 8.4241
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0223
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0223) – 1
= 9.34%
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4241 + -0.0014 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(6.1520)
= $469.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4241 + -0.0014 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(6.0627)
= $429.55
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4241 + -0.0014 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(5.9974)
= $402.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.4241 + -0.0014 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0223)
= Exp(5.9082)
= $368.04
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.03% per annum.
- MSFT price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.