ServiceNow Inc (NOW)
ServiceNow is an American software company based in Santa Clara, California that develops a cloud computing platform to help companies manage digital workflows for enterprise operations.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.20% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $1,022.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.82% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.6744
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0678
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0678) – 1
= 31.13%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(6.0564)
= $426.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(5.7854)
= $325.50
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(7.0090)
= $1,106.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(6.7380)
= $843.84
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.20% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $1,022.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.9537
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0291
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.34%
May 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.5995)
= $734.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.4831)
= $654.01
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.9750)
= $1,069.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.8586)
= $952.03
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.82% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.