Stock Price Trends

ServiceNow Inc (NOW)

ServiceNow is an American software company based in Santa Clara, California that develops a cloud computing platform to help companies manage digital workflows for enterprise operations.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.20% per annum.
  • NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $1,022.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.82% per annum.
  • NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.6744

b = 0.0012

s = 0.0678

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0678) – 1
= 31.13%

September 20, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(6.0564)
= $426.83

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y712)
= Exp(a + b × X712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(5.7854)
= $325.50

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(7.0090)
= $1,106.53

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6744 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0678)
= Exp(6.7380)
= $843.84

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.20% per annum.
  • NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $1,022.10 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.9537

b = 0.0022

s = 0.0291

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 120.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0291) – 1
= 12.34%

May 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,653 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.5995)
= $734.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,137)
= Exp(a + b × X1,137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,653 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,653 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.4831)
= $654.01

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.9750)
= $1,069.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9537 + 0.0022 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0291)
= Exp(6.8586)
= $952.03

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 120.82% per annum.
  • NOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.