ServiceNow Inc (NOW)
ServiceNow is an American software company based in Santa Clara, California that develops a cloud computing platform to help companies manage digital workflows for enterprise operations.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.47% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $796.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $206.42 (20.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.11% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 19, 2022
End date: February 19, 2025
a = 4.8091
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0687
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 56.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0687) – 1
= 31.62%
September 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8091 + 0.0012 × 901 + 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(6.0517)
= $424.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 901 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8091 + 0.0012 × 901 – 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(5.7769)
= $322.76
February 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8091 + 0.0012 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(7.1360)
= $1,256.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8091 + 0.0012 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0687)
= Exp(6.8612)
= $954.56
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 56.47% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $796.14 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $206.42 (20.59%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 16.1840
b = -0.0052
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0052) – 1
= -85.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.03%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.1840 + -0.0052 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(7.0916)
= $1,201.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.1840 + -0.0052 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(6.9515)
= $1,044.75
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.1840 + -0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(6.7315)
= $838.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.1840 + -0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(6.5915)
= $728.88
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.11% per annum.
- NOW price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.