CommVault Systems Inc (CVLT)
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides data protection and information management software applications and related services in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tinton Falls, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 138.29% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $168.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.31% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.25 (4.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVLT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2023
End date: October 15, 2024
a = 0.8103
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0485
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 138.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0485) – 1
= 21.43%
September 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8103 + 0.0024 × 1,395 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.2261)
= $68.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y960)
= Exp(a + b × X960 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8103 + 0.0024 × 1,395 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.0319)
= $56.37
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8103 + 0.0024 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(5.1682)
= $175.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8103 + 0.0024 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0485)
= Exp(4.9740)
= $144.61
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 138.29% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $168.65 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 30, 2024
End date: October 28, 2024
a = 5.2628
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0472
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -5.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.77%
July 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2628 + -0.0001 × 1,714 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.1006)
= $164.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,714 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2628 + -0.0001 × 1,714 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.9120)
= $135.91
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2628 + -0.0001 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.0872)
= $161.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2628 + -0.0001 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(4.8985)
= $134.09
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.31% per annum.
- CVLT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $7.25 (4.49%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.