SolarWinds Corp (SWI)
SolarWinds Corporation offers information technology (IT) infrastructure management software products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.67% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $18.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.72 (10.32%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.82% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.31%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: February 6, 2025
a = 1.3502
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0639
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0639) – 1
= 29.14%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3502 + 0.0007 × 883 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(2.1253)
= $8.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y610)
= Exp(a + b × X610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3502 + 0.0007 × 883 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(1.8695)
= $6.49
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3502 + 0.0007 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(2.7769)
= $16.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3502 + 0.0007 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0639)
= Exp(2.5211)
= $12.44
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.67% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $18.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.72 (10.32%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: March 17, 2025
a = 2.8673
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0015
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0015) – 1
= 0.58%
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8673 + 0.0000 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.0015)
= Exp(2.9098)
= $18.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,220)
= Exp(a + b × X1,220 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8673 + 0.0000 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.0015)
= Exp(2.9039)
= $18.25
March 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8673 + 0.0000 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0015)
= Exp(2.9106)
= $18.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,245)
= Exp(a + b × X1,245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8673 + 0.0000 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0015)
= Exp(2.9048)
= $18.26
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.82% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of March 31, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.31%).