SolarWinds Corp (SWI)
SolarWinds Corporation offers information technology (IT) infrastructure management software products in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.35% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of October 21, 2024 was $12.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.16% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of October 21, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2022
End date: October 21, 2024
a = 1.2686
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0659
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0659) – 1
= 30.14%
September 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2686 + 0.0007 × 1,045 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(2.1370)
= $8.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y721)
= Exp(a + b × X721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2686 + 0.0007 × 1,045 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(1.8736)
= $6.51
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2686 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(2.6877)
= $14.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2686 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0659)
= Exp(2.4242)
= $11.29
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.35% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of October 21, 2024 was $12.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 10, 2023
End date: October 21, 2024
a = 1.5441
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0305
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 22.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0305) – 1
= 12.97%
November 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5441 + 0.0005 × 1,480 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(2.4165)
= $11.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,021)
= Exp(a + b × X1,021 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,480 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5441 + 0.0005 × 1,480 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(2.2946)
= $9.92
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5441 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(2.6062)
= $13.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5441 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(2.4843)
= $11.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.16% per annum.
- SWI price at the close of October 21, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.