Stock Price Trends

N-Able Inc (NABL)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.23% per annum.
  • NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (6.08%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 88.27% per annum.
  • NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.45 (32.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NABL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: February 7, 2025

a = 4.9291

b = -0.0021

s = 0.0474

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0474) – 1
= 20.89%

June 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,054 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.8295)
= $16.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,054 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.6398)
= $14.01

February 7, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,299 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.3194)
= $10.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,299 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.1297)
= $8.41

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.23% per annum.
  • NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (6.08%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 3, 2025
End date: February 27, 2025

a = 0.0364

b = 0.0017

s = 0.0118

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.27%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.84%

February 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,295 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.3049)
= $10.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,295 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.2577)
= $9.56

February 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,319 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.3465)
= $10.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,319 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.2993)
= $9.97

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 88.27% per annum.
  • NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.45 (32.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.