N-Able Inc (NABL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.16% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $10.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.77 (7.06%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.54% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NABL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 4.2282
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0346
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0346) – 1
= 14.86%
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2282 + -0.0015 × 1,054 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(2.7660)
= $15.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2282 + -0.0015 × 1,054 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(2.6275)
= $13.84
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,214 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2282 + -0.0015 × 1,214 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(2.5335)
= $12.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,214 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2282 + -0.0015 × 1,214 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(2.3950)
= $10.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 41.16% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $10.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.77 (7.06%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 4, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 20.2851
b = -0.0148
s = 0.0229
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0148) – 1
= -99.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0229) – 1
= 9.58%
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2851 + -0.0148 × 1,204 + 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.5711)
= $13.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2851 + -0.0148 × 1,204 – 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.4797)
= $11.94
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y841)
= Exp(a + b × X841 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2851 + -0.0148 × 1,219 + 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.3498)
= $10.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y841)
= Exp(a + b × X841 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(20.2851 + -0.0148 × 1,219 – 2 × 0.0229)
= Exp(2.2584)
= $9.57
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 99.54% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.