N-Able Inc (NABL)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.23% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (6.08%).
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 88.27% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.45 (32.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NABL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2024
End date: February 7, 2025
a = 4.9291
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0474
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0474) – 1
= 20.89%
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,054 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.8295)
= $16.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y727)
= Exp(a + b × X727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,054 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,054 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.6398)
= $14.01
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,299 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.3194)
= $10.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y894)
= Exp(a + b × X894 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9291 + -0.0021 × 1,299 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(2.1297)
= $8.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.23% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $7.09 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (6.08%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2025
End date: February 27, 2025
a = 0.0364
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.84%
February 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,295 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.3049)
= $10.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y890)
= Exp(a + b × X890 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,295 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.2577)
= $9.56
February 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,319 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.3465)
= $10.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0364 + 0.0017 × 1,319 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(2.2993)
= $9.97
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 88.27% per annum.
- NABL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.45 (32.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.