Stock Price Trends

Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud solutions for endpoint and cloud workload protection in the United States, Australia, Germany, India, Israel, Romania, and the United Kingdom. The company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $352.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $242.77 (40.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.50% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024

a = 2.1987

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0987

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.39%

November 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1987 + 0.0024 × 973 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1987 + 0.0024 × 973 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.3407)
= $76.76

July 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1987 + 0.0024 × 1,569 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(6.1683)
= $477.39

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1987 + 0.0024 × 1,569 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.72

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $352.58 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $242.77 (40.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 29, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 4.8123

b = 0.0006

s = 0.1323

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.50%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1323) – 1
= 69.77%

November 29, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y922)
= Exp(a + b × X922 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8123 + 0.0006 × 1,337 + 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(5.8796)
= $357.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y922)
= Exp(a + b × X922 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8123 + 0.0006 × 1,337 – 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(5.3504)
= $210.69

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8123 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(6.1726)
= $479.45

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8123 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1323)
= Exp(5.6434)
= $282.42

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.50% per annum.
  • CRWD price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.