Crowdstrike Holdings Inc (CRWD)
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud solutions for endpoint and cloud workload protection in the United States, Australia, Germany, India, Israel, Romania, and the United Kingdom. The company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $353.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $80.17 (18.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.04% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CRWD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 30, 2022
End date: July 18, 2024
a = 1.8790
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0987
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0987) – 1
= 48.39%
November 30, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8790 + 0.0024 × 1,106 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.7354)
= $113.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y762)
= Exp(a + b × X762 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8790 + 0.0024 × 1,106 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(4.3407)
= $76.76
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8790 + 0.0024 × 1,702 + 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(6.1683)
= $477.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,170)
= Exp(a + b × X1,170 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,702 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8790 + 0.0024 × 1,702 – 2 × 0.0987)
= Exp(5.7737)
= $321.72
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 140.50% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $353.29 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $80.17 (18.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 9, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = 6.1596
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1249) – 1
= 64.80%
January 9, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1596 + -0.0003 × 1,511 + 2 × 0.1249)
= Exp(6.0172)
= $410.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,039)
= Exp(a + b × X1,039 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,511 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1596 + -0.0003 × 1,511 – 2 × 0.1249)
= Exp(5.5176)
= $249.04
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1596 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1249)
= Exp(5.9357)
= $378.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1596 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1249)
= Exp(5.4361)
= $229.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.04% per annum.
- CRWD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.