Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
Progress Software Corporation develops business applications. The company is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.23% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $51.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.86% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.08 (0.15%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 7.7607
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0359
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0359) – 1
= 15.45%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7607 + -0.0021 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.3345)
= $76.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7607 + -0.0021 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.1908)
= $66.07
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7607 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(4.0325)
= $56.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7607 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0359)
= Exp(3.8889)
= $48.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 53.23% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $51.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 22, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.4208
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0242
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.18%
January 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4208 + -0.0008 × 1,757 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.0935)
= $59.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,208)
= Exp(a + b × X1,208 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,757 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4208 + -0.0008 × 1,757 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(3.9965)
= $54.41
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4208 + -0.0008 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(4.0402)
= $56.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4208 + -0.0008 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(3.9433)
= $51.59
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 24.86% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.08 (0.15%).