Progress Software Corporation (PRGS)
Progress Software Corporation develops business applications. The company is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 83.07% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $65.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PRGS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.1865
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0361
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 83.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0361) – 1
= 15.53%
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1865 + 0.0017 × 1,619 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(3.9409)
= $51.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,619 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1865 + 0.0017 × 1,619 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(3.7965)
= $44.54
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1865 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.2838)
= $72.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1865 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0361)
= Exp(4.1394)
= $62.76
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 83.07% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $65.79 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 26, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.7923
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0178) – 1
= 7.38%
September 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7923 + 0.0002 × 1,772 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.2192)
= $67.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,772 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7923 + 0.0002 × 1,772 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.1480)
= $63.31
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7923 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.2311)
= $68.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7923 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0178)
= Exp(4.1599)
= $64.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- PRGS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.