Stock Price Trends

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)

Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. It develops and sells cybersecurity solutions, including but not limited to physical products such as firewalls, plus software and services such as anti-virus protection, intrusion prevention systems and endpoint security components.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.59% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $90.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.39 (17.30%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 174.94% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: July 2, 2021
End date: August 12, 2024

a = 4.0467

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1117

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.59%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1117) – 1
= 56.34%

July 2, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 590 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0467 + 0.0000 × 590 + 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(4.2956)
= $73.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y406)
= Exp(a + b × X406 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 590 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0467 + 0.0000 × 590 – 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(3.8487)
= $46.93

August 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0467 + 0.0000 × 1,727 + 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(4.3447)
= $77.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,187)
= Exp(a + b × X1,187 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,727 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0467 + 0.0000 × 1,727 – 2 × 0.1117)
= Exp(3.8978)
= $49.29

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.59% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $90.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.39 (17.30%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.5672

b = 0.0028

s = 0.0644

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 174.94%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0644) – 1
= 29.36%

May 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5672 + 0.0028 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(4.1363)
= $62.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5672 + 0.0028 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(3.8789)
= $48.37

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5672 + 0.0028 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(4.6213)
= $101.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.5672 + 0.0028 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0644)
= Exp(4.3638)
= $78.56

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 174.94% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.