Stock Price Trends

Fortinet Inc (FTNT)

Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. It develops and sells cybersecurity solutions, including but not limited to physical products such as firewalls, plus software and services such as anti-virus protection, intrusion prevention systems and endpoint security components.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.12% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $100.72 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.85 (27.70%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.19% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 17, 2021
End date: August 12, 2024

a = 4.0367

b = 0.0001

s = 0.1133

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1133) – 1
= 57.33%

June 17, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0367 + 0.0001 × 416 + 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(4.2872)
= $72.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y288)
= Exp(a + b × X288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 416 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0367 + 0.0001 × 416 – 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(3.8340)
= $46.25

August 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0367 + 0.0001 × 1,568 + 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(4.3532)
= $77.73

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0367 + 0.0001 × 1,568 – 2 × 0.1133)
= Exp(3.9001)
= $49.41

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 2.12% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $100.72 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $21.85 (27.70%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 22, 2023
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 2.4638

b = 0.0012

s = 0.1051

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 54.19%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1051) – 1
= 52.25%

September 22, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y858)
= Exp(a + b × X858 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4638 + 0.0012 × 1,243 + 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(4.1486)
= $63.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y858)
= Exp(a + b × X858 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4638 + 0.0012 × 1,243 – 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(3.7283)
= $41.61

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4638 + 0.0012 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(4.8368)
= $126.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4638 + 0.0012 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1051)
= Exp(4.4164)
= $82.80

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 54.19% per annum.
  • FTNT price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.