Fortinet Inc (FTNT)
Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) is an American multinational corporation headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. It develops and sells cybersecurity solutions, including but not limited to physical products such as firewalls, plus software and services such as anti-virus protection, intrusion prevention systems and endpoint security components.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 137.81% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $98.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.95 (7.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.50% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FTNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 3, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025
a = 0.4572
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0625
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 137.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0625) – 1
= 28.42%
May 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0024 × 1,491 + 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.1211)
= $61.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,027)
= Exp(a + b × X1,027 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0024 × 1,491 – 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(3.8710)
= $47.99
March 5, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0024 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.8474)
= $127.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.4572 + 0.0024 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0625)
= Exp(4.5973)
= $99.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 137.81% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $98.08 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $7.95 (7.50%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 7, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 10.1763
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0335
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.33%
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1763 + -0.0031 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.7905)
= $120.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1763 + -0.0031 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.6566)
= $105.27
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1763 + -0.0031 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.6242)
= $101.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1763 + -0.0031 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(4.4903)
= $89.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 67.50% per annum.
- FTNT price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.