Amazon.com Inc (AMZN)
Amazon.com, Inc. is an American multinational technology company which focuses on e-commerce, cloud computing, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence. It is one of the Big Five companies in the U.S. information technology industry, along with Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook. The company has been referred to as one of the most influential economic and cultural forces in the world, as well as the world's most valuable brand.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.50% per annum.
- AMZN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $204.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.11 (4.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.42% per annum.
- AMZN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.86 (0.42%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AMZN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 1, 2022
End date: July 17, 2024
a = 2.9887
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0547
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0547) – 1
= 24.48%
November 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,077 + 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(4.5669)
= $96.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y742)
= Exp(a + b × X742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,077 – 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(4.3479)
= $77.32
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(5.4178)
= $225.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,169)
= Exp(a + b × X1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9887 + 0.0014 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.0547)
= Exp(5.1989)
= $181.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.50% per annum.
- AMZN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $204.61 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.11 (4.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: November 4, 2024
a = 4.8315
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.42%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.54%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8315 + 0.0002 × 1,535 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.2524)
= $191.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,056)
= Exp(a + b × X1,056 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,535 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8315 + 0.0002 × 1,535 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.0908)
= $162.53
November 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8315 + 0.0002 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.3136)
= $203.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8315 + 0.0002 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(5.1520)
= $172.78
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.42% per annum.
- AMZN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.86 (0.42%).