eBay Inc (EBAY)
eBay Inc. is an American multinational e-commerce corporation based in San Jose, California, that facilitates consumer-to-consumer and business-to-consumer sales through its website.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.75% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $61.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.44 (0.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.04% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EBAY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.5870
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0424
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 68.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0424) – 1
= 18.49%
October 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5870 + 0.0014 × 1,429 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(3.7202)
= $41.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5870 + 0.0014 × 1,429 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(3.5506)
= $34.83
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5870 + 0.0014 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(4.2607)
= $70.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5870 + 0.0014 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(4.0910)
= $59.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 68.75% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $61.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.44 (0.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.8806
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0252
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0252) – 1
= 10.62%
September 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8806 + -0.0021 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.2527)
= $70.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8806 + -0.0021 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.1518)
= $63.55
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8806 + -0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.1492)
= $63.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.8806 + -0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0252)
= Exp(4.0483)
= $57.30
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.04% per annum.
- EBAY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.