Stock Price Trends

Kohls Corp (KSS)

Kohl's Corporation is a retail company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.62% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $16.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.13% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: November 30, 2023

a = 4.4303

b = -0.0010

s = 0.1667

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1667) – 1
= 94.82%

February 4, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0010 × 441 + 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(4.3045)
= $74.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0010 × 441 – 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(3.6376)
= $38.00

November 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0010 × 1,470 + 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(3.2328)
= $25.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,012)
= Exp(a + b × X1,012 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4303 + -0.0010 × 1,470 – 2 × 0.1667)
= Exp(2.5659)
= $13.01

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.62% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $16.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 1, 2022
End date: November 15, 2024

a = 3.3457

b = -0.0002

s = 0.1222

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1222) – 1
= 63.02%

July 1, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3457 + -0.0002 × 953 + 2 × 0.1222)
= Exp(3.4248)
= $30.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y656)
= Exp(a + b × X656 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3457 + -0.0002 × 953 – 2 × 0.1222)
= Exp(2.9361)
= $18.84

November 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3457 + -0.0002 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1222)
= Exp(3.2742)
= $26.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3457 + -0.0002 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1222)
= Exp(2.7855)
= $16.21

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.13% per annum.
  • KSS price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.