Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a branded product retailer. The company is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.64% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $118.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.71% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 9, 2021
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.3381
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0955
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0955) – 1
= 46.51%
December 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y425)
= Exp(a + b × X425 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3381 + 0.0007 × 615 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(3.9794)
= $53.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y425)
= Exp(a + b × X425 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 615 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3381 + 0.0007 × 615 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(3.5975)
= $36.51
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3381 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(4.8655)
= $129.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3381 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0955)
= Exp(4.4836)
= $88.55
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 30.64% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $118.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 7, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 3.1202
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0759
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 37.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0759) – 1
= 35.45%
December 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y675)
= Exp(a + b × X675 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1202 + 0.0009 × 978 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.1294)
= $62.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y675)
= Exp(a + b × X675 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1202 + 0.0009 × 978 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(3.8259)
= $45.88
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1202 + 0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.8720)
= $130.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1202 + 0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0759)
= Exp(4.5685)
= $96.40
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 37.71% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.