Ollie's Bargain Outlet Hldg (OLLI)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a branded product retailer. The company is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.33% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $89.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.83% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLLI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 9, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.2702
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0970
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0970) – 1
= 47.42%
December 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 750 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2702 + 0.0007 × 750 + 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(3.9928)
= $54.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y517)
= Exp(a + b × X517 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 750 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2702 + 0.0007 × 750 – 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(3.6047)
= $36.77
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2702 + 0.0007 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(4.7511)
= $115.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2702 + 0.0007 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0970)
= Exp(4.3630)
= $78.49
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.33% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $89.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.2182
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0377
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0377) – 1
= 16.28%
June 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2182 + -0.0004 × 1,671 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.6648)
= $106.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2182 + -0.0004 × 1,671 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.5140)
= $91.29
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2182 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.6065)
= $100.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2182 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.4557)
= $86.12
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 12.83% per annum.
- OLLI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.