Etsy Inc (ETSY)
Etsy, Inc. is an American e-commerce company focused on handmade or vintage items and craft supplies. These items fall under a wide range of categories, including jewelry, bags, clothing, home decor and furniture, toys, art, as well as craft supplies and tools.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.43% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $50.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.62% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETSY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 11, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.8815
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1939
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1939) – 1
= 117.18%
January 11, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8815 + -0.0011 × 417 + 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(5.8214)
= $337.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8815 + -0.0011 × 417 – 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(5.0458)
= $155.38
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8815 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(4.3079)
= $74.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8815 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1939)
= Exp(3.5323)
= $34.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.43% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $50.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.4920
b = -0.0008
s = 0.1685
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1685) – 1
= 96.20%
March 31, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4920 + -0.0008 × 861 + 2 × 0.1685)
= Exp(5.1309)
= $169.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4920 + -0.0008 × 861 – 2 × 0.1685)
= Exp(4.4569)
= $86.22
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4920 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1685)
= Exp(4.3485)
= $77.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4920 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1685)
= Exp(3.6745)
= $39.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.62% per annum.
- ETSY price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.