Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL)
Alphabet Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate headquartered in Mountain View, California. It was created through a restructuring of Google on October 2, 2015, and became the parent company of Google and several former Google subsidiaries. The two co-founders of Google remained as controlling shareholders, board members, and employees at Alphabet. Alphabet is the world's fourth-largest technology company by revenue and one of the world's most valuable companies.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.59% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $154.64 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.74 (14.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.76% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GOOGL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2022
End date: February 20, 2025
a = 3.7007
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0686
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0686) – 1
= 31.58%
September 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y623)
= Exp(a + b × X623 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7007 + 0.0009 × 903 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.6452)
= $104.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y623)
= Exp(a + b × X623 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 903 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7007 + 0.0009 × 903 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(4.3707)
= $79.10
February 20, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7007 + 0.0009 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(5.4346)
= $229.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7007 + 0.0009 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0686)
= Exp(5.1602)
= $174.19
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.59% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $154.64 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $25.74 (14.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 11.7430
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0254
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -73.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0254) – 1
= 10.69%
January 21, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7430 + -0.0037 × 1,756 + 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.3574)
= $212.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,207)
= Exp(a + b × X1,207 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,756 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7430 + -0.0037 × 1,756 – 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.2558)
= $191.67
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7430 + -0.0037 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.1044)
= $164.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.7430 + -0.0037 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0254)
= Exp(5.0029)
= $148.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 73.76% per annum.
- GOOGL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.