Stock Price Trends

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Nvidia Corporation is an American multinational technology company incorporated in Delaware and based in Santa Clara, California. It designs graphics processing units (GPUs) for the gaming and professional markets, as well as system on a chip units (SoCs) for the mobile computing and automotive market.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 218.18% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $147.01 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.89% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NVDA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 30, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.6711

b = 0.0032

s = 0.1356

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 218.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1356) – 1
= 72.03%

August 30, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6711 + 0.0032 × 1,014 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(2.8157)
= $16.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6711 + 0.0032 × 1,014 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(2.2731)
= $9.71

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6711 + 0.0032 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(5.3906)
= $219.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.6711 + 0.0032 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1356)
= Exp(4.8481)
= $127.50

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 218.18% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $147.01 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.1531

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0836

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0836) – 1
= 39.69%

May 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,646 + 2 × 0.0836)
= Exp(4.8979)
= $134.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,133)
= Exp(a + b × X1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,646 – 2 × 0.0836)
= Exp(4.5636)
= $95.93

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0836)
= Exp(5.0705)
= $159.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1531 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0836)
= Exp(4.7362)
= $114.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 41.89% per annum.
  • NVDA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.