Stock Price Trends

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON)

ON Semiconductor Corporation manufactures and sells semiconductor components for various electronic devices worldwide. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.64% per annum.
  • ON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $67.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.33% per annum.
  • ON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 15, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 5.2878

b = -0.0006

s = 0.0870

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0870) – 1
= 41.64%

May 15, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2878 + -0.0006 × 1,271 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.7004)
= $109.99

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y874)
= Exp(a + b × X874 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2878 + -0.0006 × 1,271 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.3523)
= $77.66

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2878 + -0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.3679)
= $78.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2878 + -0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.0198)
= $55.69

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.64% per annum.
  • ON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $67.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 30, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.5306

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0628

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -5.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0628) – 1
= 28.58%

October 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y990)
= Exp(a + b × X990 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5306 + -0.0001 × 1,439 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.4405)
= $84.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y990)
= Exp(a + b × X990 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5306 + -0.0001 × 1,439 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.1891)
= $65.97

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5306 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.3825)
= $80.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5306 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0628)
= Exp(4.1311)
= $62.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.33% per annum.
  • ON price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.