Monolithic Power Systems Inc (MPWR)
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. is an American, publicly traded company headquartered in Kirkland, Washington. The company provides power circuits for systems found in cloud computing, telecom infrastructures, automotive, industrial applications and consumer applications.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.63% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $579.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MPWR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 9.2346
b = -0.0016
s = 0.1178
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1178) – 1
= 60.21%
June 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2346 + -0.0016 × 1,534 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(7.0612)
= $1,165.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,057)
= Exp(a + b × X1,057 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,534 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2346 + -0.0016 × 1,534 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(6.5899)
= $727.72
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2346 + -0.0016 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(6.6074)
= $740.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2346 + -0.0016 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1178)
= Exp(6.1361)
= $462.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.63% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $579.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 13, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 5.4542
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0586
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0586) – 1
= 26.42%
November 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4542 + 0.0006 × 1,688 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(6.5025)
= $666.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,688 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4542 + 0.0006 × 1,688 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(6.2680)
= $527.44
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4542 + 0.0006 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(6.5770)
= $718.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4542 + 0.0006 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0586)
= Exp(6.3425)
= $568.22
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.30% per annum.
- MPWR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.