Skyworks Solutions Inc (SWKS)
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. is an American semiconductor company headquartered in Irvine, California, United States. Skyworks manufactures semiconductors for use in Radio Frequency (RF) and mobile communications systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.14% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $83.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.68 (67.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.17% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.65 (4.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SWKS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 23, 2020
End date: January 12, 2023
a = 5.7035
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1100
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1100) – 1
= 55.25%
December 23, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7035 + -0.0011 × 399 + 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(5.4834)
= $240.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7035 + -0.0011 × 399 – 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(5.0435)
= $155.01
January 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7035 + -0.0011 × 1,149 + 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(4.6562)
= $105.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7035 + -0.0011 × 1,149 – 2 × 0.1100)
= Exp(4.2164)
= $67.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.14% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $83.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $33.68 (67.52%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: October 29, 2024
a = 4.4781
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0830
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0830) – 1
= 39.35%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4781 + 0.0001 × 884 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.7196)
= $112.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4781 + 0.0001 × 884 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.3878)
= $80.46
October 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4781 + 0.0001 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.7984)
= $121.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,242)
= Exp(a + b × X1,242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4781 + 0.0001 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0830)
= Exp(4.4666)
= $87.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.17% per annum.
- SWKS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.65 (4.19%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.