Stock Price Trends

Universal Display (OLED)

Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the research, development and commercialization of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for use in solid-state lighting and display applications. The company is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.45% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $138.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $58.83 (29.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.01% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 3.9891

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0911

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0911) – 1
= 43.96%

May 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9891 + 0.0008 × 767 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(4.7932)
= $120.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y529)
= Exp(a + b × X529 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9891 + 0.0008 × 767 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(4.4289)
= $83.84

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9891 + 0.0008 × 1,672 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(5.5271)
= $251.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,152)
= Exp(a + b × X1,152 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9891 + 0.0008 × 1,672 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(5.1628)
= $174.65

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.45% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $138.89 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $58.83 (29.75%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 7.7549

b = -0.0015

s = 0.0789

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -43.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0789) – 1
= 37.11%

June 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7549 + -0.0015 × 1,532 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(5.5524)
= $257.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,055)
= Exp(a + b × X1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,532 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7549 + -0.0015 × 1,532 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(5.2368)
= $188.07

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7549 + -0.0015 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(5.1010)
= $164.18

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7549 + -0.0015 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0789)
= Exp(4.7854)
= $119.75

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.01% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.