Stock Price Trends

Universal Display (OLED)

Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the research, development and commercialization of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for use in solid-state lighting and display applications. The company is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.45% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $150.70 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.10 (19.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.18% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 3.9384

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0911

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0911) – 1
= 43.96%

May 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9384 + 0.0008 × 833 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(4.7961)
= $121.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y576)
= Exp(a + b × X576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 833 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9384 + 0.0008 × 833 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(4.4318)
= $84.08

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9384 + 0.0008 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(5.5300)
= $252.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9384 + 0.0008 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(5.1657)
= $175.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.45% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $150.70 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.10 (19.76%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: January 23, 2025

a = 11.1517

b = -0.0034

s = 0.0420

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.18%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0420) – 1
= 18.27%

September 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1517 + -0.0034 × 1,691 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.4717)
= $237.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,166)
= Exp(a + b × X1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,691 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1517 + -0.0034 × 1,691 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.3039)
= $201.12

January 23, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1517 + -0.0034 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(5.0218)
= $151.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.1517 + -0.0034 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0420)
= Exp(4.8540)
= $128.25

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 71.18% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.