Stock Price Trends

Universal Display (OLED)

Universal Display Corporation is dedicated to the research, development and commercialization of organic light-emitting diode (OLED) technologies and materials for use in solid-state lighting and display applications. The company is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.45% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $152.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $41.23 (21.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.63% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OLED price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 3.9701

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0911

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0911) – 1
= 43.96%

May 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y548)
= Exp(a + b × X548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9701 + 0.0008 × 794 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(4.7961)
= $121.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y548)
= Exp(a + b × X548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9701 + 0.0008 × 794 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(4.4318)
= $84.08

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9701 + 0.0008 × 1,699 + 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(5.5300)
= $252.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,171)
= Exp(a + b × X1,171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,699 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9701 + 0.0008 × 1,699 – 2 × 0.0911)
= Exp(5.1657)
= $175.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 34.45% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of March 5, 2025 was $152.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $41.23 (21.26%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 12, 2024
End date: March 5, 2025

a = 8.0123

b = -0.0017

s = 0.0800

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0800) – 1
= 37.72%

June 12, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0123 + -0.0017 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.5694)
= $262.27

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0123 + -0.0017 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.2493)
= $190.44

March 5, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0123 + -0.0017 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(5.1253)
= $168.22

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0123 + -0.0017 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0800)
= Exp(4.8052)
= $122.14

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.63% per annum.
  • OLED price at the close of March 5, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.