Stock Price Trends

NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)

NXP Semiconductors N.V. is a Dutch semiconductor manufacturer with headquarters in Eindhoven, Netherlands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.23% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $189.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.20% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (0.84%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: February 11, 2025

a = 7.1493

b = -0.0010

s = 0.0366

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.23%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0366) – 1
= 15.75%

May 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1493 + -0.0010 × 1,497 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.6866)
= $294.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1493 + -0.0010 × 1,497 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.5403)
= $254.77

February 11, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1493 + -0.0010 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.3983)
= $221.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1493 + -0.0010 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0366)
= Exp(5.2521)
= $190.96

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.23% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $189.99 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2024
End date: March 26, 2025

a = 6.5225

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0386

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.69%

August 1, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0007 × 1,584 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.5657)
= $261.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,584 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0007 × 1,584 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.4114)
= $223.94

March 26, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0007 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.4110)
= $223.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.5225 + -0.0007 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.2567)
= $191.84

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 21.20% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.60 (0.84%).