Stock Price Trends

NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI)

NXP Semiconductors N.V. is a Dutch semiconductor manufacturer with headquarters in Eindhoven, Netherlands.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.67% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $219.91 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.68% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NXPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 14, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 7.4689

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0386

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0386) – 1
= 16.71%

May 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4689 + -0.0011 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.7047)
= $300.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4689 + -0.0011 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.5502)
= $257.29

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4689 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.4921)
= $242.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.4689 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0386)
= Exp(5.3376)
= $208.01

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.67% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $219.91 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 16.2746

b = -0.0060

s = 0.0209

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0060) – 1
= -88.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0209) – 1
= 8.74%

October 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2746 + -0.0060 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.5497)
= $257.16

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2746 + -0.0060 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.4659)
= $236.50

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2746 + -0.0060 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.4184)
= $225.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(16.2746 + -0.0060 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0209)
= Exp(5.3346)
= $207.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.68% per annum.
  • NXPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.