Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.26% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $6.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (22.40%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.65% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WOLF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: November 14, 2024
a = 7.5417
b = -0.0027
s = 0.2083
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -63.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2083) – 1
= 130.11%
August 18, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5417 + -0.0027 × 1,002 + 2 × 0.2083)
= Exp(5.2098)
= $183.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y690)
= Exp(a + b × X690 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5417 + -0.0027 × 1,002 – 2 × 0.2083)
= Exp(4.3764)
= $79.55
November 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5417 + -0.0027 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.2083)
= Exp(2.9632)
= $19.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5417 + -0.0027 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.2083)
= Exp(2.1298)
= $8.41
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 63.26% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $6.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.86 (22.40%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 10.2373
b = -0.0044
s = 0.2261
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0044) – 1
= -79.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2261) – 1
= 147.03%
December 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2373 + -0.0044 × 1,472 + 2 × 0.2261)
= Exp(4.2679)
= $71.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2373 + -0.0044 × 1,472 – 2 × 0.2261)
= Exp(3.3635)
= $28.89
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2373 + -0.0044 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.2261)
= Exp(2.7235)
= $15.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2373 + -0.0044 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.2261)
= Exp(1.8192)
= $6.17
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.65% per annum.
- WOLF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.