Stock Price Trends

Wolfspeed Inc (WOLF)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.68% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $2.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.76 (40.42%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.45% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of March 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.73 (21.89%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WOLF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 18, 2022
End date: March 27, 2025

a = 7.5886

b = -0.0031

s = 0.2387

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -67.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2387) – 1
= 159.85%

August 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5886 + -0.0031 × 870 + 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(5.3736)
= $215.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y601)
= Exp(a + b × X601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 870 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5886 + -0.0031 × 870 – 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(4.4187)
= $82.99

March 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5886 + -0.0031 × 1,822 + 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(2.4275)
= $11.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,822 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5886 + -0.0031 × 1,822 – 2 × 0.2387)
= Exp(1.4726)
= $4.36

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.68% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $2.59 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.76 (40.42%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 1, 2023
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 10.0338

b = -0.0046

s = 0.2107

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0046) – 1
= -81.45%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.2107) – 1
= 132.26%

December 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y925)
= Exp(a + b × X925 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,340 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0338 + -0.0046 × 1,340 + 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(4.2706)
= $71.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y925)
= Exp(a + b × X925 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,340 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0338 + -0.0046 × 1,340 – 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(3.4279)
= $30.81

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0338 + -0.0046 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(2.0414)
= $7.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0338 + -0.0046 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.2107)
= Exp(1.1987)
= $3.32

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.45% per annum.
  • WOLF price at the close of March 28, 2025 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.73 (21.89%).