Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets mixed-signal and analog semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 189.13% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $47.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.25% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 19, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -1.3830
b = 0.0029
s = 0.1412
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 189.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1412) – 1
= 75.92%
October 19, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3830 + 0.0029 × 1,429 + 2 × 0.1412)
= Exp(3.0560)
= $21.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,429 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3830 + 0.0029 × 1,429 – 2 × 0.1412)
= Exp(2.4911)
= $12.08
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3830 + 0.0029 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1412)
= Exp(4.2108)
= $67.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.3830 + 0.0029 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1412)
= Exp(3.6459)
= $38.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 189.13% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $47.24 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.1319
b = 0.0015
s = 0.1246
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 70.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1246) – 1
= 64.62%
April 3, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1319 + 0.0015 × 1,596 + 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(3.7079)
= $40.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,097)
= Exp(a + b × X1,097 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,596 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1319 + 0.0015 × 1,596 – 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(3.2095)
= $24.77
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1319 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(4.0432)
= $57.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1319 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1246)
= Exp(3.5448)
= $34.63
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 70.25% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.