Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets mixed-signal and analog semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. The company is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 195.04% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $35.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $22.24 (38.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.69% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2023
End date: February 7, 2025
a = -1.0552
b = 0.0030
s = 0.1502
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 195.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1502) – 1
= 82.36%
October 5, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0552 + 0.0030 × 1,283 + 2 × 0.1502)
= Exp(3.0483)
= $21.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y885)
= Exp(a + b × X885 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0552 + 0.0030 × 1,283 – 2 × 0.1502)
= Exp(2.4475)
= $11.56
February 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0552 + 0.0030 × 1,774 + 2 × 0.1502)
= Exp(4.5037)
= $90.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,774 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.0552 + 0.0030 × 1,774 – 2 × 0.1502)
= Exp(3.9029)
= $49.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 195.04% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $35.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $22.24 (38.82%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 26, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 15.4174
b = -0.0065
s = 0.1708
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0065) – 1
= -90.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1708) – 1
= 98.03%
November 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4174 + -0.0065 × 1,701 + 2 × 0.1708)
= Exp(4.6956)
= $109.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,173)
= Exp(a + b × X1,173 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,701 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4174 + -0.0065 × 1,701 – 2 × 0.1708)
= Exp(4.0124)
= $55.28
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4174 + -0.0065 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.1708)
= Exp(3.9021)
= $49.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.4174 + -0.0065 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.1708)
= Exp(3.2189)
= $25.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.69% per annum.
- SMTC price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.