Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Ltd (AOSL)
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited designs, develops and supplies power semiconductor products for computer, consumer electronics, communications and industrial applications. The company is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.18% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $24.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.17 (20.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.75% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AOSL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 25, 2021
End date: May 7, 2024
a = 4.4159
b = -0.0009
s = 0.1343
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1343) – 1
= 71.15%
October 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4159 + -0.0009 × 572 + 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(4.1658)
= $64.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y395)
= Exp(a + b × X395 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4159 + -0.0009 × 572 – 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.6284)
= $37.65
May 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4159 + -0.0009 × 1,497 + 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(3.3269)
= $27.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4159 + -0.0009 × 1,497 – 2 × 0.1343)
= Exp(2.7895)
= $16.27
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.18% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $24.86 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.17 (20.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2022
End date: March 27, 2025
a = 3.1544
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1875
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1875) – 1
= 111.68%
September 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1544 + 0.0002 × 895 + 2 × 0.1875)
= Exp(3.6894)
= $40.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y617)
= Exp(a + b × X617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 895 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1544 + 0.0002 × 895 – 2 × 0.1875)
= Exp(2.9395)
= $18.91
March 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1544 + 0.0002 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1875)
= Exp(3.8550)
= $47.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1544 + 0.0002 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1875)
= Exp(3.1051)
= $22.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 6.75% per annum.
- AOSL price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.