First Solar Inc (FSLR)
First Solar, Inc. offers solar photovoltaic (PV) solutions in the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.37% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $187.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.50% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSLR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 8.1299
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0757
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0757) – 1
= 35.36%
May 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.7185)
= $304.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.4158)
= $224.92
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.4365)
= $229.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1299 + -0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0757)
= Exp(5.1338)
= $169.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.37% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $187.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 13.9277
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0456
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0456) – 1
= 20.00%
September 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.6008)
= $270.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.4185)
= $225.54
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.3000)
= $200.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.9277 + -0.0048 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0456)
= Exp(5.1177)
= $166.95
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 82.50% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.