Stock Price Trends

First Solar Inc (FSLR)

First Solar, Inc. offers solar photovoltaic (PV) solutions in the United States, Japan, France, Canada, India, Australia, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.60% per annum.
  • FSLR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $127.32 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.79% per annum.
  • FSLR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSLR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 8.7085

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0827

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.60%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0827) – 1
= 39.23%

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7085 + -0.0020 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0827)
= Exp(5.7796)
= $323.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7085 + -0.0020 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0827)
= Exp(5.4486)
= $232.44

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7085 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0827)
= Exp(5.1456)
= $171.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.7085 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0827)
= Exp(4.8146)
= $123.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 52.60% per annum.
  • FSLR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $127.32 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 6, 2025
End date: March 28, 2025

a = 14.9308

b = -0.0055

s = 0.0385

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0055) – 1
= -86.79%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0385) – 1
= 16.64%

January 6, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9308 + -0.0055 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.3455)
= $209.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9308 + -0.0055 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(5.1916)
= $179.75

March 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9308 + -0.0055 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(4.8962)
= $133.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9308 + -0.0055 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0385)
= Exp(4.7423)
= $114.70

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.79% per annum.
  • FSLR price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.