Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
Microchip Technology Inc. is a publicly-listed American corporation that manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog and Flash-IP integrated circuits.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.47% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $48.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.15% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCHP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 6, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 7.5511
b = -0.0020
s = 0.0572
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1
= 25.72%
May 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5511 + -0.0020 × 1,497 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.7005)
= $110.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,031)
= Exp(a + b × X1,031 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,497 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5511 + -0.0020 × 1,497 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.4716)
= $87.49
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5511 + -0.0020 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.0548)
= $57.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5511 + -0.0020 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(3.8259)
= $45.87
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.47% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $48.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 4, 2024
End date: March 28, 2025
a = 5.4319
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0508
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0508) – 1
= 22.52%
December 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4319 + -0.0008 × 1,709 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.1768)
= $65.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,178)
= Exp(a + b × X1,178 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,709 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4319 + -0.0008 × 1,709 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(3.9737)
= $53.18
March 28, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4319 + -0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(4.0863)
= $59.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4319 + -0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0508)
= Exp(3.8832)
= $48.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.15% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.