Microchip Technology Inc (MCHP)
Microchip Technology Inc. is a publicly-listed American corporation that manufactures microcontroller, mixed-signal, analog and Flash-IP integrated circuits.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.39% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.62% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCHP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 7.3689
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0450
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0450) – 1
= 19.73%
May 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3689 + -0.0017 × 1,636 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.6646)
= $106.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,125)
= Exp(a + b × X1,125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,636 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3689 + -0.0017 × 1,636 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.4845)
= $88.63
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3689 + -0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.3401)
= $76.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3689 + -0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0450)
= Exp(4.1600)
= $64.07
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.39% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.88 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 28, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 21.1045
b = -0.0093
s = 0.0268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0093) – 1
= -96.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.33%
October 28, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1045 + -0.0093 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.4161)
= $82.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1045 + -0.0093 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.3088)
= $74.35
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1045 + -0.0093 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.2119)
= $67.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(21.1045 + -0.0093 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.1046)
= $60.62
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 96.62% per annum.
- MCHP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.