Stock Price Trends

Analog Devices Inc (ADI)

Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), also known simply as Analog, is an American multinational semiconductor company specializing in data conversion, signal processing and power management technology, headquartered in Wilmington, Massachusetts.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.90% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $201.56 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.63% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: February 18, 2025

a = 5.9175

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0314

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.90%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0314) – 1
= 13.37%

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9175 + -0.0003 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.5018)
= $245.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9175 + -0.0003 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.3764)
= $216.24

February 18, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9175 + -0.0003 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.4158)
= $224.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9175 + -0.0003 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0314)
= Exp(5.2904)
= $198.42

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.90% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was $201.56 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 19, 2025
End date: March 21, 2025

a = 15.7116

b = -0.0057

s = 0.0198

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0057) – 1
= -87.63%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.22%

February 19, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7116 + -0.0057 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.5260)
= $251.14

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7116 + -0.0057 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.4470)
= $232.06

March 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7116 + -0.0057 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.3543)
= $211.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.7116 + -0.0057 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.2753)
= $195.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.63% per annum.
  • ADI price at the close of March 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.