Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Oracle is an American multinational computer technology corporation headquartered in Austin, Texas. The company was formerly headquartered in Redwood Shores, California until December 2020 when it moved its headquarters to Texas. The company sells database software and technology, cloud engineered systems, and enterprise software products, particularly its own brands of database management systems.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.69% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $188.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 127.58% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ORCL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 5, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.2959
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0869
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 42.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0869) – 1
= 41.59%
May 5, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2959 + 0.0010 × 897 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.3435)
= $76.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y618)
= Exp(a + b × X618 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2959 + 0.0010 × 897 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(3.9958)
= $54.37
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2959 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(5.2484)
= $190.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2959 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0869)
= Exp(4.9006)
= $134.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 42.69% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $188.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.0944
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0533
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 127.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0533) – 1
= 23.78%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0944 + 0.0023 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.8283)
= $125.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0944 + 0.0023 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(4.6150)
= $100.98
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0944 + 0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.3150)
= $203.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0944 + 0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0533)
= Exp(5.1016)
= $164.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 127.58% per annum.
- ORCL price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.