Stock Price Trends

Box Inc (BOX)

Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage and share their content from anywhere and on any device. The company is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.69% per annum.
  • BOX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $33.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.49 (1.49%).
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 107.55% per annum.
  • BOX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BOX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: June 1, 2021
End date: August 27, 2024

a = 3.2431

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0798

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0798) – 1
= 37.59%

June 1, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2431 + 0.0000 × 559 + 2 × 0.0798)
= Exp(3.4282)
= $30.82

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y383)
= Exp(a + b × X383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2431 + 0.0000 × 559 – 2 × 0.0798)
= Exp(3.1091)
= $22.40

August 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2431 + 0.0000 × 1,742 + 2 × 0.0798)
= Exp(3.4824)
= $32.54

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,198)
= Exp(a + b × X1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,742 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2431 + 0.0000 × 1,742 – 2 × 0.0798)
= Exp(3.1633)
= $23.65

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 1.69% per annum.
  • BOX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $33.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.49 (1.49%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -0.0999

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0427

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 107.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0427) – 1
= 18.65%

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0999 + 0.0020 × 1,664 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.3146)
= $27.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,144)
= Exp(a + b × X1,144 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,664 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0999 + 0.0020 × 1,664 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.1437)
= $23.19

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0999 + 0.0020 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.6387)
= $38.04

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.0999 + 0.0020 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0427)
= Exp(3.4678)
= $32.06

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 107.55% per annum.
  • BOX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.