Stock Price Trends

DoubleVerify Holdings Inc (DV)

DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. provides a software platform for digital media measurement, data, and analysis. The company is headquartered in New York, New York with additional locations at Berlin, Germany; Chicago, Illinois; Merelbeke, Belgium; Helsinki, Finland; London, United Kingdom; Los Angeles and San Francisco, California; Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico; Paris, France; So Paulo, Brazil; Singapore, Singapore; Sydney, Australia; Tel Aviv, Israel; and Tokyo, Japan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.66% per annum.
  • DV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $19.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.69 (3.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.33% per annum.
  • DV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 12, 2023
End date: November 4, 2024

a = 6.8004

b = -0.0032

s = 0.1402

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -68.66%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1402) – 1
= 75.22%

December 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y666)
= Exp(a + b × X666 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 965 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8004 + -0.0032 × 965 + 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(4.0131)
= $55.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y666)
= Exp(a + b × X666 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 965 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8004 + -0.0032 × 965 – 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(3.4522)
= $31.57

November 4, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8004 + -0.0032 × 1,293 + 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(2.9704)
= $19.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y891)
= Exp(a + b × X891 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8004 + -0.0032 × 1,293 – 2 × 0.1402)
= Exp(2.4095)
= $11.13

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.66% per annum.
  • DV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $19.28 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.69 (3.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 3.4769

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0583

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.33%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0583) – 1
= 26.28%

May 8, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y767)
= Exp(a + b × X767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4769 + -0.0005 × 1,113 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(3.0862)
= $21.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y767)
= Exp(a + b × X767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4769 + -0.0005 × 1,113 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.8529)
= $17.34

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4769 + -0.0005 × 1,308 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.9973)
= $20.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y902)
= Exp(a + b × X902 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4769 + -0.0005 × 1,308 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(2.7640)
= $15.86

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 15.33% per annum.
  • DV price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.