Autodesk Inc (ADSK)
Autodesk, Inc. is an American multinational software corporation that makes software products and services for the architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, media, education, and entertainment industries. Autodesk is headquartered in San Rafael, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.57% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $305.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 140.70% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADSK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.6045
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0346
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.57%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0346) – 1
= 14.83%
April 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6045 + 0.0017 × 1,610 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.4008)
= $221.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,107)
= Exp(a + b × X1,107 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,610 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6045 + 0.0017 × 1,610 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.2625)
= $192.97
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6045 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.7667)
= $319.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6045 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0346)
= Exp(5.6284)
= $278.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 85.57% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $305.20 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.3346
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 140.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.77%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3346 + 0.0024 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.5040)
= $245.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3346 + 0.0024 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.4291)
= $227.95
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3346 + 0.0024 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.7663)
= $319.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3346 + 0.0024 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(5.6914)
= $296.32
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 140.70% per annum.
- ADSK price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.