SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC)
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions globally. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.93% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $132.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $42.42 (24.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.23% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPSC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: February 10, 2025
a = 4.9814
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0518
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0518) – 1
= 23.02%
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,161 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9814 + 0.0002 × 1,161 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.2680)
= $194.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,161 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9814 + 0.0002 × 1,161 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.0609)
= $157.73
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9814 + 0.0002 × 1,776 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.3650)
= $213.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,776 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9814 + 0.0002 × 1,776 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.1579)
= $173.80
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.93% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $132.73 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $42.42 (24.22%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 13.1978
b = -0.0046
s = 0.0749
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0046) – 1
= -81.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0749) – 1
= 34.94%
December 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1978 + -0.0046 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.5095)
= $247.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,179)
= Exp(a + b × X1,179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1978 + -0.0046 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(5.2098)
= $183.07
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1978 + -0.0046 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.9823)
= $145.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.1978 + -0.0046 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0749)
= Exp(4.6827)
= $108.06
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 81.23% per annum.
- SPSC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.