Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE)
Adobe Inc. is an American multinational computer software company. Incorporated in Delaware and headquartered in San Jose, California, it has historically specialized in software for the creation and publication of a wide range of content, including graphics, photography, illustration, animation, multimedia, motion pictures and print. The company has expanded into digital marketing management software. Adobe has millions of users worldwide. Flagship products include: Photoshop image editing software, Adobe Illustrator vector-based illustration software, Adobe Acrobat Reader and the Portable Document Format (PDF), plus a host of tools primarily for audio-visual content creation, editing and publishing.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.64% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $383.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.36% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ADBE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 8.3012
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0518
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -36.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0518) – 1
= 23.00%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3012 + -0.0013 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(6.4693)
= $645.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,066)
= Exp(a + b × X1,066 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3012 + -0.0013 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(6.2623)
= $524.41
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3012 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(6.1230)
= $456.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3012 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0518)
= Exp(5.9160)
= $370.91
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 36.64% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $383.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 13.8382
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0322
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.36%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0322) – 1
= 13.75%
February 11, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8382 + -0.0043 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(6.2207)
= $503.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,222)
= Exp(a + b × X1,222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8382 + -0.0043 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(6.0918)
= $442.23
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8382 + -0.0043 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(6.0132)
= $408.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(13.8382 + -0.0043 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(5.8843)
= $359.36
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.36% per annum.
- ADBE price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.