Dynatrace Holdings LLC (DT)
Dynatrace, Inc. provides a software intelligence platform for dynamic multi-cloud environments. The company is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.50% per annum.
- DT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $47.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.64 (21.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.17% per annum.
- DT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: February 23, 2024
a = 3.0499
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0870
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0870) – 1
= 41.62%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y519)
= Exp(a + b × X519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0499 + 0.0007 × 751 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(3.7238)
= $41.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y519)
= Exp(a + b × X519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0499 + 0.0007 × 751 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(3.3759)
= $29.25
February 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0499 + 0.0007 × 1,423 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.1712)
= $64.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0499 + 0.0007 × 1,423 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(3.8232)
= $45.75
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.50% per annum.
- DT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $47.15 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $12.64 (21.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2023
End date: September 13, 2024
a = 4.1303
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0753
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0753) – 1
= 35.15%
May 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1303 + -0.0002 × 1,133 + 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(4.0834)
= $59.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1303 + -0.0002 × 1,133 – 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(3.7821)
= $43.91
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1303 + -0.0002 × 1,626 + 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(3.9974)
= $54.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,626 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1303 + -0.0002 × 1,626 – 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(3.6962)
= $40.29
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.17% per annum.
- DT price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.