PTC Inc (PTC)
PTC Inc. is an American computer software and services company founded in 1985 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.73% per annum.
- PTC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $188.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.81% per annum.
- PTC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.89 (3.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PTC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2022
End date: July 23, 2024
a = 4.0156
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0563
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 29.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0563) – 1
= 25.27%
March 7, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0156 + 0.0007 × 837 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(4.7252)
= $112.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 837 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0156 + 0.0007 × 837 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(4.4999)
= $90.01
July 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0156 + 0.0007 × 1,706 + 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(5.3449)
= $209.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,172)
= Exp(a + b × X1,172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,706 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0156 + 0.0007 × 1,706 – 2 × 0.0563)
= Exp(5.1197)
= $167.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 29.73% per annum.
- PTC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $188.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 18, 2024
End date: October 8, 2024
a = 5.5046
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0250
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -6.81%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0250) – 1
= 10.51%
January 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5046 + -0.0002 × 1,519 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.2612)
= $192.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,044)
= Exp(a + b × X1,044 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,519 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5046 + -0.0002 × 1,519 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.1613)
= $174.38
October 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5046 + -0.0002 × 1,783 + 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.2102)
= $183.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,226)
= Exp(a + b × X1,226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,783 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5046 + -0.0002 × 1,783 – 2 × 0.0250)
= Exp(5.1103)
= $165.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 6.81% per annum.
- PTC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $6.89 (3.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.