Appfolio Inc (APPF)
AppFolio, Inc. provides industry-specific cloud-based enterprise software data analytics, services and solutions for the real estate industry. The company is headquartered in Santa Barbara, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.11% per annum.
- APPF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $222.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.69 (6.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.67% per annum.
- APPF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of APPF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 3.1575
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0791
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 64.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0791) – 1
= 37.19%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1575 + 0.0014 × 973 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.6361)
= $103.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y672)
= Exp(a + b × X672 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 973 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1575 + 0.0014 × 973 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(4.3199)
= $75.18
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1575 + 0.0014 × 1,781 + 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(5.7327)
= $308.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1575 + 0.0014 × 1,781 – 2 × 0.0791)
= Exp(5.4165)
= $225.08
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 64.11% per annum.
- APPF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was $222.92 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $15.69 (6.58%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 26, 2024
End date: September 6, 2024
a = 5.3729
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0552
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.67%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0552) – 1
= 24.69%
January 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3729 + 0.0000 × 1,600 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.5560)
= $258.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,600 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3729 + 0.0000 × 1,600 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.3354)
= $207.55
September 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3729 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.5662)
= $261.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3729 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0552)
= Exp(5.3456)
= $209.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.67% per annum.
- APPF price at the close of September 6, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.