Stock Price Trends

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO)

Fair Isaac Corporation develops data management, software and analytics products and services that enable companies to automate, improve and connect decisions in North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific. The company is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.00% per annum.
  • FICO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $2,284.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 196.24% per annum.
  • FICO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FICO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 18, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.3103

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0753

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 93.00%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0753) – 1
= 35.12%

April 18, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y605)
= Exp(a + b × X605 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3103 + 0.0018 × 880 + 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(6.0461)
= $422.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y605)
= Exp(a + b × X605 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 880 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3103 + 0.0018 × 880 – 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(5.7451)
= $312.66

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3103 + 0.0018 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(7.7503)
= $2,322.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3103 + 0.0018 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0753)
= Exp(7.4493)
= $1,718.65

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 93.00% per annum.
  • FICO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $2,284.43 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 2.2851

b = 0.0030

s = 0.0369

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 196.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.89%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2851 + 0.0030 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(7.1283)
= $1,246.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2851 + 0.0030 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(6.9808)
= $1,075.79

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2851 + 0.0030 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(7.7918)
= $2,420.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2851 + 0.0030 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(7.6443)
= $2,088.74

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 196.24% per annum.
  • FICO price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.