Stock Price Trends

ANSYS Inc (ANSS)

Ansys, Inc. is an American company based in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. It develops and markets multiphysics engineering simulation software for product design, testing and operation and offers its products and services to customers worldwide.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.39% per annum.
  • ANSS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $357.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.44% per annum.
  • ANSS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ANSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 6, 2022
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 5.2056

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0841

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.39%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0841) – 1
= 39.97%

May 6, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2056 + 0.0004 × 830 + 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.6795)
= $292.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y575)
= Exp(a + b × X575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2056 + 0.0004 × 830 – 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.3432)
= $209.19

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2056 + 0.0004 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(6.0457)
= $422.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2056 + 0.0004 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0841)
= Exp(5.7094)
= $301.70

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.39% per annum.
  • ANSS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was $357.37 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 27, 2023
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 5.5957

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0534

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 4.44%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0534) – 1
= 23.82%

February 27, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y777)
= Exp(a + b × X777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + 0.0001 × 1,127 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.8366)
= $342.60

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y777)
= Exp(a + b × X777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,127 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + 0.0001 × 1,127 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.6229)
= $276.68

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + 0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.9194)
= $372.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5957 + 0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0534)
= Exp(5.7058)
= $300.59

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4.44% per annum.
  • ANSS price at the close of January 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.